My perspective - When three's not a crowd
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- Published on Monday, July 30, 2018
By Kate Jackman-Atkinson
Neepawa Banner & Press
Westman residents can be forgiven for forgetting that a provincial by-election just took place. While usually dull affairs, that wasn鈥檛 the case this time and the outcome could have an interesting impact on the province鈥檚 political future.
When the polls closed in the St. Boniface riding on July 17, the results were surprising.
The seat had been held by New Democratic Party (NDP) MLA and former premier Greg Selinger since 1999. The NDP, the province鈥檚 Official Opposition, considered it a safe seat. Voters had other ideas; instead of returning the NDP to the Leg via candidate Blandine Tona, new Liberal leader Dougald Lamont won the seat with 2,636 votes, or 42 per cent of the ballots cast. The NDP was a distant second, with 1,782 votes or 28.44 per cent. The governing Progressive Conservatives (PC) finished fourth, behind the Green Party, with 826 votes. The by-election attracted almost 47 per cent of eligible voters, which is a decent turnout when you consider that in the 2017 Point Douglas by-election, only 31 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots and in the 2016 general election, only 63 per cent of St. Boniface voters and 57 per cent of all 水果视频ns cast ballots.
This by-election result certainly makes things interesting. With Lamont鈥檚 win, the 水果视频 Liberals now have four seats and official party status for the first time in 23 years. This opens the door to more funding for the party and allows Lamont, who was chosen as the party鈥檚 leader last October, to ask questions of PC premier Brian Pallister and his ministers during question period.
There鈥檚 a long way to go for the Liberals to recreate their 1988 peak of 20 seats and Official Opposition status, under leader Sharon Carstairs, but conditions could be ripe come the next general election in 2020. The party鈥檚 1988 victory was thanks to the support of centre-left voters who were unhappy with the unpopular NDP government under Howard Pawley.
It鈥檚 more of the same 30 years later. After being relegated to Official Opposition in the 2016 election, the NDP still can鈥檛 seem to find their footing, despite electing a new leader last September. The NDP now has only 12 MLAs, their lowest number since 1988, and a lot of baggage from almost 20 years in power.
While the NDP are likely to be on the losing end of any gains made by the Liberals, the Conservatives aren鈥檛 entirely out of the woods. There won鈥檛 be any short term implications; the PCs still holds a majority and can pass bills without the support of other parties. However, they won the last election on a wave of discontented voters who wanted a change from the NDP, who had been in power since 1999. A series of moves aimed at trimming the budget have upset many voters. With a third option, the PCs need to, at a minimum, do a better job of explaining why the cuts are needed and what impact they will really have on front line services, which is top of mind for many voters.
Sitting in the ideological middle, the Liberals have the potential to pick up centrist voters from both sides of the political spectrum and could be a wild card come 2020. I don鈥檛 like a two party system, there鈥檚 too much incentive to govern for the fringes, not the majority. There鈥檚 too much antagonism and us-versus-them. Having three viable parties means that if they want to win, all parties must pay attention to the majority and that鈥檚 a good thing for the majority of our province鈥檚 residents. Keeping our politicians on their toes is never a bad thing.
